Arizona again, like the Twist

Arizona Week, with its six large auctions, will give us some interesting indications of the 2022 market. This is why we continue to browse through the many cars on offer. This week, in order to understand whether certain phenomena will emerge, Chris Goodall has selected some lots from Worldwide, Bonhams and RM Sotheby’s.

We begin with Worldwide, the first auction of the three, which will be held on Wednesday 26^th (If you want to follow it in streaming, it starts at 5 PM local time or 1 AM in Europe).

To begin with, a 1991 Lamborghini Diablo. White with black interior, this example is from the first year of production. With Countach prices rising in recent months, I’m curious to see if the Diablo will do the same. References? The last two sold: one with 5,250 km on the clock for $274,400 / €224,800; the other with 21,000 km to its credit for $145,600 / €119,900. The one on sale this time has covered 12.500 km. In my opinion, the threshold worth keeping an eye on is $200,000 (€175,000).

In September, after the sale of a Dual Ghia Convertible for $465,000 (€405,000), I concluded my summary with the words: “Right now they’re still going for under $500,000 (€440,000), but the next time one comes up, that may no longer be the case.” The same model from 1957 will be on sale at Worldwide. Will I have predicted the future?

Now let’s move on to Bonhams who will hold its sale on the 27th at 10 AM local time or 7 PM in Continental Europe.

The British offer an interesting assembly of about ninety cars, but there is no million-dollar top lot. The most expensive car here is a 1961 Jaguar E-Type S1 3.8 Roadster. Why do I think this is a lot that deserves to be observed carefully? It is one of the first 200 chassis with the External Bonnet Latches, sometimes referred to as Outside Bonnet Locks. In the last decade, this single feature has on average doubled the prices of the examples sold. But last year, the hooks had less and less influence on the market. With an estimate of $380,000-$480,000 (€335,000-€420,000) twice as much as normal, this time the hooks determine the value once again. I’m interested to see what happens.

I would also recommend following the Jaguar E-Type S1 4.2 FHC. The example from Bonhams is estimated at $225,000-$275.000 (€200,000-€240,000), dangerously close to an Aston Martin DB4 S2 which they presume will sell for somewhere between $250,000 (€220,000) and $300,000 (€265,000).

At the cost of setting the alarm clock (but I’m sure it won’t be necessary) I want to see how the 1992 Ferrari 512 TR goes. The “usual” red Ferrari, with average mileage and without the famous Red Book of Certification. So? This one is one of the two prototypes used for the development of the American specifications. In August, a 27,000-mile car changed hands for $143,000 (€163,000) while one with 10,000 miles on the clock remained unsold at $180,000 (€205,000). Without the uniqueness of the prototype, I would say that it is worth about $150,000-$170,000 (€130,000-€150,000), but this particular changes the cards on the table. The uniqueness of being a prototype, according to Bonhams, is worth somewhere in the region of $275,000-$325,000 (€240,000-€285,000), which is about 80% more. I think that sounds just about right.

Just one hour later, RM will start its own auction (at 11 am for Americans, and at 8 PM in Europe) and I recommend keeping your eyes on two Italians.

The first is a 1955 Lancia Aurelia B24 Spider America. After all five examples of this model auctioned in 2021 went unsold, my curiosity is justified. RM has lowered their estimates: whereas before the estimates floated between $1.1m (€965,000) and $1.5m (€1.3m), this time in Arizona, it’s $900,000-$1.2m (€790,000-€1.05m). Moreover, it is one of the most beautiful examples I have seen: equipped with Nardi intake and the rare Fontana low-roof hardtop. Once a car in this specification would have been estimated at well over $1.5 million (€1.3m). But the market changes. Anyway I will bet on the sale, and without being too optimistic, I would not be surprised if it changes hands in the upper region of its estimate.

The other Italian to watch at this sale is undoubtedly the 1965 Ferrari 275 GTB. One of the 250 “shortnose” examples, a configuration that’s not particularly loved but, in any case, it’s still a 275. Hence the estimate: $1.5m-$2m (€1.3m-€1,75m). We haven’t seen an example of this model with such a limited estimate since Pebble Beach in 2019 (where one was sold for $1,572,500 or €1,380,000) but this is completely preserved, a feature much appreciated and it could very well amaze us all. Anyone who possesses a Ferrari of that era should follow it carefully.

Just like last Thursday, I would like to draw your attention to three “wild cards” that could easily disrupt the market.

From Worldwide, there’s a 1935 Delahaye 135M Competition DHC bodied by Figoni. Worldwide has a peculiarity: it doesn’t have a good track record for selling the highest-level pre-war models, bodied by the celebrated names of the jet set of the 30s, which it proposes. Let’s see if they manage to break the spell this time.

Bonhams will field a 1949 Buick Roadmaster Convertible. Not just any one though: the third star of the film Rain Man. I still remember the beginning of the film that left me ecstatic: the song Iko Iko and a Lamborghini Countach hovering in the air before being loaded onto the dock of the port! But the Buick, in the film, is much more important, and it would not surprise me if the estimate of $150,000-$250,000 (€130,000-€220,000) (already triple that of an ordinary example) was swept away.

At RM, choosing the wild card seemed simple, the 1988 Cizeta Moroder V16T (estimate $900,000-£1,200,000 or €800,000-€1,05m). Worth following, in any case.

But the estimate given to the 1997 Porsche 911 Turbo S with 14,000 miles on the clock made me change my mind. The market is rampant for this model, and I would have been happy to pay $200,000-$250,000 for it (already a lot, I remember when they were worth $102,500 or €90,000) but according to RM it’s worth $490,000-$540,000 (€430,000-€475,000). I turned off the computer thinking they had hacked me, but on another one the estimate was the same…